Are Republicans Responsible For Hillary’s Huge Wins in Deep Red Primary States? UPDATED
March 7, 2016
(ADDENDUM 3/9/16: As predicted, Sanders wins another Blue State… Michigan… whereas Clinton wins yet another deep red state with an Open Primary: Mississippi.)
Not to sound conspiratorial, but why is Bernie winning Caucus states by double digits but Hillary is winning Deep Red (eVoting) Primary states by enormous 30/40/50 point margins? Anyone who has followed my column lo these past eleven years knows I despise “conspiracy theories”, so I apologize in advance if it seems like I’m suggesting one now. But when a pattern starts to emerge, only a fool would ignore it. There have been exactly 22 Democratic races so far, sixteen (16) Primaries and six (6) caucuses. Bernie has won NINE ten (10) races (including “Americans Overseas”). Hillary has won thirteen (including American Samoa). Five (5) of Sanders’ ten wins were caucuses, won by double digits, nearly tied in Iowa (diff: 0.3%), and lost Nevada by only 5.2%. Clinton’s greatest caucus victory? American Samoa by 46%. As I’m sure you already know, voters must actually stick around for a headcount on Election Day to be counted in a caucus.
Meanwhile, of the fourteen sixteen “Primary” states, Hillary has won nine (9) eleven (11) of them. Of those eleven, nine were in the deep red South (the lone exception being Massachusetts where she won by 1.8%), winning by huge margins often of 30-points or more. EIGHT of the nine were OPEN primary states (exception: Louisiana), meaning anyone of either Party can crossover to vote in either Party’s primary.
During the 2008 election, radio host Rush Limbaugh called on his listeners to cross over and “vote for Hillary” in order to deny Obama an early victory, stringing out the Primary season for as long as possible while the two candidates beat each other up prior to the November election. The name he gave it was “Operation Chaos”. And despite trailing well behind Obama in delegates, and despite the very real likelihood that Clinton was only being kept afloat by Republicans seeking to sabotage the Democratic primaries, as late as May, of that year, Clinton was still refusing to drop out of the race:
On May 23rd [2008], at an editorial-board meeting in South Dakota, Clinton was asked, again, whether she should drop out of the race for the good of the Party. Clinton, saying she would not, employed a historical reference meant to remind her listeners that the nomination process had extended into June in previous primary campaigns. “My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.” – The New Yorker
(You might remember there was a brief flurry of concern with Clinton bringing up the assassination of Bobby Kennedy in her justification for staying in the race, almost seeming to suggest the possibility that then-Senator Obama might be killed before the race was over. Hillary had to quickly apologize just a few hours later assuring reporters & concerned Obama supporters that that is not what she meant.)
In any case, I can’t help but be bothered by the margins by which Clinton is winning in Southern Primary states where people vote on electronic “black box” voting machines, yet losing in Caucus states (where there must be a physical head count) by double-digits. Hillary has won only two caucuses, both very early on: Iowa (by 1.8%) & Nevada (by 5.2%) for an average margin of victory of just 3.5%. Compare that to her average margin of victory in Southern Primary states by a whopping 41% (I excluded her 1.4% win in MA to avoid skewing the result.) (ADDENDUM: Clinton wins Mississippi… another Open Primary red state… by a whopping 66%, yet loses Michigan… a state she was “predicted” to win by 17 points… by 1.7%… a nearly 20 point swing. Clearly, someone was trying to discourage Sanders voters.)
Now, of course, logic dictates that the most likely reasonable explanation would be that younger Bernie supporters are more willing to stand around for hours attending a caucus and waiting to be counted than the “65 & older” demographic that Clinton leads in. But Clinton’s lead among seniors is well below Bernie’s lead with the “under 45” demographic. And consider that just as many younger voters will show up to vote in an ordinary primary as attend a caucus (five of Sanders’ ten wins have been Primaries), so “older” voters alone can’t account for huge 30/40/50 (and now 66) point margins of victory. There MUST be something else going on. And I argue that that “something else” is “Conservative Crossover”. As I pointed out above, seven eight of Clinton’s nine ten (non-caucus) wins were “open primaries” in the Deep South (the lone exception being Louisiana. Massachusetts, her only non-Southern primary win, was “Closed”.) The remaining twenty-nine (29) states are disproportionately Blue or Purple… a map that favors Sanders.
I suppose it is possible all those deep red Southern states Clinton is winning will all vote Blue come November. If you believe that, you probably also believe Goldman-Sachs just wanted financial advice from the former Secretary of State.
And as I’ve repeatedly stated on Facebook (or at least I did. I have had TWO Facebook accounts deleted in the past week… without warning… suddenly demanding I produce ID, which despite doing so, have yet to be reinstated), Hillary is “a scandal bomb waiting to go off”. Just last Thursday, the DoJ granted immunity to the man who set up Clinton’s email server. You don’t give someone “immunity” from prosecution unless you believe there is an even greater concern of criminal wrong-doing by someone else. Likewise Hillary has still as of yet refused to release the transcripts of her $675,000 speeches to Goldman-Sachs (view the Clinton “transcript clock” here, counting the days since Clinton promised to “look into” releasing those transcripts over one month ago). During last night’s debate in Flint, MI, Clinton said she would release her transcripts “when everyone else does.” Sanders waved his empty arms. “There! I’ve just released all my transcripts!”
To date, Clinton’s wins have been almost exclusively in deep red Southern states that are almost certain not to vote for her in November. Meanwhile, Sanders is winning by double digits in states that are far more likely to vote Blue in November if he is the nominee. Yesterday on Fox “news” Sunday, GOP-tool George Will predicted that if Hillary gets the nomination, Trump will concentrate heavily on courting disaffected Sanders voters on issues of “Free Trade” and “sending a message” to the “Powers that be” (read: Debbie Wasserman Schultz). Now, you may think Bernie voters will never vote for someone like Trump… the antithesis of everything Bernie supports, but all Trump needs is to pick off JUST THREE PERCENT of Bernie voters and suddenly we’re looking at “President Trump”.
Despite the fact Hillary only leads Bernie with just twelve thirteen (13) wins to Sanders’ nine ten (10), The Media, pundits and Hillary Supporters all point to her huge 2-to-1 lead in Delegates to suggest he is so far behind he can not win and perhaps should drop out now so she can concentrate on defeating Trump in November. Seriously? “Delegates” are meaningless outside of a “brokered” convention. They always vote with the candidate who has won the most states, and as I’m pointing out, Hillary is running out of Red states to keep her afloat (and all this “inevitability” talk has GOT to be killing her fundraising too. Why donate to her campaign if she has already effectively won?)
On the flip side, if Trump is “defeated” or otherwise “cheated” out of the GOP nomination via “brokered convention”… which is starting to look more & more likely, as long as he doesn’t decide to play spoiler and run third-party out of spite, an awful lot of Trump’s “anti-free trade, hates Hillary” supporters will migrate over to Independent Bernie Sanders to defeat whomever the GOP “elects” to replace him (Cruz or perhaps even Romney again), ensuring an easy victory for Sanders in November.
I know that’s a lot to think about but I encourage you to do so.
POSTSCRIPT: Last week, Facebook shutdown the account I have been using for the last eight years because “I did not appear to be using my real name.” But they were nice about it, giving me two options: 1) either I prove my legal name really is “Mugsy RapSheet” or 2) Build a new page linked to my “personal” Facebook account that uses my real name. Problem is, that method intermingles every post notification of my personal page in with my private page, and every time I send a Friend Request, it does so using my real name. Totally unacceptable. So I instead have been forced to create an entirely new account and attempt to rebuild my friends list from scratch. If you previously friended me on Facebook, I invite you to rejoin me at the new address. – Mugsy
ADDENDUM: As noted up top, my SECOND Facebook account was shutdown without warning as well. Worse, when I linked to this Op/Ed on “DailyKOS”, they too disabled my posting rights for three days based solely on FOUR accusations I was spreading “Conspiracy Theories”. I ask you? Do you think I’ve earned the right to be paranoid yet?
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March 7, 2016
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Posted in: Election, mystery, Politics, Scandals, voting
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One Response
ThinkProgress noted that “thousands of students” (a core Sanders demographic) were turned away at the polls in North Carolina (won by Clinton) because of strict “Voter ID laws” passed by Republicans.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/15/3760266/north-carolina-voter-id/
This may be yet one more reason why Clinton is doing so well in Red States (and purple states under GOP control.) The early Primaries have been mostly Red states, giving Clinton an early lead.
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