Why a Sanders Victory is More Likely than Hillary
May 2, 2016

 
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If you are a Sanders supporter like myself, the Media seems to be every bit as eager to write off his campaign as Hillary herself even though his chances are FAR from mathematically eliminated (unlike Cruz & Kasich). Last week, Progressive political magazine “The Week” (owned by a Conservative publisher) did a story entitled: “Clinton regains aura of inevitability” following her big wins in recent races. Typically, these are Pro/Con columns were they cite the opinion of a particular pundit, followed by a contradictory opinion from another pundit. But this time, every pundit essentially closed the book on Sanders using some highly questionable reasoning. One particular argument against nominating Senator Sanders angered me enough to write a letter to the editor. They wrote:

“Fans of Sanders argue that he’s the stronger general election candidate, but they’re wrong,” said Paul Waldman in TheWeek.com. “Right now, he outpolls Clinton against Trump or Cruz, but that’s because Republicans haven’t attacked him yet. If Sanders were the nominee, the GOP would paint him as an America-hating Trotskyite who admires the Castros and wants to raise everyone’s taxes, put the government in charge of everything and cripple the military.”

Forget for a moment the fact that Republicans call EVERY Democrat “an America-hating Trotskyite” that “wants to raise everyone’s taxes, put the government in charge of everything and cripple the military.” If you don’t think they’ll accuse Clinton of that too, you haven’t been paying attention for the last 30 years. I bit my tongue a bit and wrote the following response:
 

[Dear Editor,]

In your last issue under “Clinton regains aura of inevitability” (April 29), The Week quoted its own website (TheWeek.com) to bolster the Clinton Campaign’s questionable claim that Senator Sander’s substantial poll lead over their GOP rivals was “because Republican’s haven’t attacked him yet.” This is purely the argument set forth by the Clinton Campaign to explain away his poll lead and does not withstand scrutiny.

When the Clinton Campaign makes this argument, they are tacitly admitting that Senator Sanders can not count on the same fealty for the Democratic nominee they demand of Sanders supporters.

If every Clinton supporter were as loyal to the “Democratic nominee no matter who”, Sanders would not only have every bit as much chance of winning the election as Clinton, but he also draws from both Independents, the “Never Trump” crowd, and even some Trump supporters that question his fitness for the job but like his purported “self-funded campaign” that’s “not beholden to any special interests”, a position Sanders shares with Trump (along with the “outsider” label and agreement that “the Establishment Party process is rigged.”)

While the author paints a picture of panic stricken voters who don’t yet know Senator Sanders is an admitted Democratic Socialist, he/she fails to take into account just how despised Secretary Clinton is to rank-n-file Conservatives. Their loathing of her is beyond visceral, and her nomination would spur the greatest GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort the GOP could ever hope for. There WILL be a massive effort to ensure a President Clinton would be strapped with a Republican Congress.

So when you repeat the spin of the Clinton campaign intended to discourage support for the Sanders campaign, you are a willing participant in swaying the primary process.

 

Simply stated, the only people who might be swayed from voting for Bernie because Republicans call him a “tax-raising Trotskyite” are Republicans who won’t be voting for the Democrat anyway. So unless Mr. Waldman is telling us HE could be convinced to vote for Trump over Sanders, what in the hell is he talking about? (pardon my French.)

Nowhere in the column did they discuss Clinton’s many weaknesses. Just as Mr. Waldman predicts the GOP will try to paint Sanders as a “Trotskyite”, they will ALSO attack Clinton on everything from BenghaziTM to the controversy over her emails. “WHY DID SHE setup a costly private email server in her home when a highly secure free email account was already being provided to her by the State Department?”, they’ll ask. The Trump campaign already has plans to nullify the “feminist” issue by going after her for the way she attacked her husband’s accusers back in the ’90’s… not just calling them liars, but actively seeking to “destroy” them then never apologizing. And younger female Bernie supporters already expressed how they resented being told there was “a special place in Hell” for them if they didn’t vote with their lady-parts instead of their personal judgement.

It is difficult to understate just how much Republicans Hate the Clintons (with a capital “H”). Conservative Right-wing lunatic Glenn Beck assured his listeners (who fully expect to lose the election in November):
 

Beck: Hillary is assured a GOP Congress

“If Hillary is the Democratic nominee and it looks like she might win, Republicans will do everything in their power to ensure she has a Republican Congress.” – Glenn Beck

 

As noted in my Letter to the Editor above, Trump and Sanders already share some common ground that appeals to voters in this “anti-establishment” year. The eschewing of “Special Interests” by refusing to take their money (though Trump DOES have a SuperPAC), and their “Outsider” bona fides that seem to be targets of their respective political Parties who appear to be going out of their way to stop their mutual insurgent campaigns. Trump has already made a number of populist statements that sound like ideas from the Sanders campaign: criticizing banking practices that led up to the Crash of 2008, admits he would “raise taxes on the wealthy… including myself“, is promising a health care system that does not leave “people dying in the streets”, attacking “drug company lobbyists“, and demanding that Saudi Arabia start footing some of the bill for their own defense. When the GOP candidate is echoing the positions of his Democratic opponent, it’s difficult to make the case that your opponent doesn’t know what they are doing. (Note that Clinton has ALSO adopted the talking points of the Sanders campaign. Does anyone think BOTH sides would be talking this way if it were not for Bernie Sanders running for president? That alone is one of the best reasons I can give for why he should be president.

“Meet the Press” pointed out yesterday just how difficult it will be for ANY Republican to win in November. As long as the Blue states remain blue, the GOP candidate would need to flip at least one large Blue state or steal four of five swing states… two of which have large Hispanic populations:
 

Trump's impossible electoral map
Trump’s difficult path to 270

 
This hurdle is independent of whether the Democratic nominee is Clinton OR Sanders. No Blue states go Red if Sanders is the nominee, and Bernie has every bit as much chance of winning the purple swing states as Hillary (if not more.)

Do we REALLY want our choice in the next election to be between the two LEAST-trustworthy candidates left in the race, both one-percenters that have been rubbing elbows for decades?
 

Poll: Candidate honesty

 

The same people who have been whining for years that “both sides are the same” are about to make Trump & Hillary our nominees? Seriously?

The idea Bernie Sanders only enjoys a national polling lead over Clinton simply because “Republicans haven’t gone after him yet” is nonsense. They haven’t officially “gone after” Clinton yet either. Both Democratic candidates have baggage and neither candidate has been targeted yet the way they will be once the Primary season is over. Do the pundits really think most Americans don’t already know Bernie Sanders is an admitted Democratic Socialist by now? And as I’ve written previously, the general election season is over three months long. So let’s say the Republican nominee attacks Sanders for being “a Socialist”. Then what? How long do they play up that angle till it grows stale? Two weeks? Maybe three? Then what?

Both Clinton & Sanders have excited their base such that they will flock to the polls come November. And both candidates have weaknesses the GOP nominee will exploit in the general election. The big question then is: which of them will draw more REPUBLICANS to the polls seeking to derail their presidency for the next four years? Because as sure as I’m sitting here, our chances of seeing ANYTHING getting done over the next four years hinges greatly on that question.
 

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May 2, 2016 · Admin Mugsy · No Comments - Add
Posted in: Election, General, myth busting, Politics, Rants, Seems Obvious to Me

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