MRS 2020 Predictions Wrap-up of 2019.
December 31, 2019

 
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I‘ve been doing my annual political predictions since 2007 with a lifetime accuracy of 60-65%, the last two years up over 65%.

I “officially” retired from writing weekly Op/Eds last July (the blog’s 15th anniversary), so I won’t be making any predictions for 2020 or engage in the annual Schadenfreude of reviewing the hilariously bad predictions of “psychics” and other political pundits, but we still need a wrap-up of my “Predictions for 2019” (links to previous years predictions can be found near the beginning of each “Predictions” post, or click the “Predictions” link on the far left.) So how did I do?
 

Results of my PREDICTIONS FOR 2019:
 

  1. Right: Trump will not participate in most (or perhaps any) GOP presidential debates. – Probably more of a “2020” prediction, but as expected, the White House has already started announcing they have no intention of participating in any debates against some of Trump’s GOP challengers (presently only three but that could change.)
  2.  

  3. Wrong: The economy will reverse course sharply before the end of the year. – I don’t judge the state of the economy based upon the height of the DOW, but the unemployment rate (if it can be trusted) and “inflation rate” are reasonable indicators of the state of the economy, and both remained low throughout 2019 (though as of this writing, the December Unemployment figures are not out yet. Christmas/Seasonal hiring usually dips the rate a point or two, so it is unlikely to show any dramatic change when it comes out next week.) Trump’s massive tax cuts for Billionaires left more money in people’s pockets to boost the economy. But to fund the government, they’ve had to borrow like crazy, causing the Deficit to explode to now over $1.2 Trillion per year. Trump’s economy is floating on a sea of red ink. Eventually, they will HAVE to raise interest rates to attract people/countries to loan us enough money to keep the government running, and THAT will crater our economy. It is possible foreign leaders who want Trump re-elected are buying up our Debt to keep our economy afloat just long enough to get him re-elected.)
  4.  

  5. Wrong: Unemployment will jump. – Tied to the incorrect prediction above, the inevitable economic decline I’ve been warning about that is coming as the Deficit explodes is entirely dependent on how long investors continue to willingly buy up our Debt at artificially low interest rates.
  6.  

  7. Wrong: The first U.S. soldier born after 9/11 will die in Afghanistan. – I’m more than happy to have been wrong about this one, but sadly, this prediction is STILL certain to happen until someone finally brings our wars in the Middle East to an end.
  8.  

  9. Right: Investigations of Trump will become more public. – 2019 was the year of presidential investigations. Manafort went to prison; Roger Stone was indicted & went to prison, Mueller completed his report and testified before Congress that he did NOT exonerate Trump (despite what Trump and the GOP keeps saying), and ended with Trump’s impeachment on just two “Articles of Impeachment” (which I pray we’ll see several more to come before they reach the Senate which has already openly declared is eager to sweep it under the rug with no trial, with Republican senators actually bragging they have no intention of withholding their bias and even coordinating a defense of Trump with the White House itself.)
  10.  

  11. Wrong. If economy turns, even many Republicans will begin to support impeaching Trump. – Very much dependent on prediction #2 above, while there are some cracks in Trump’s “GOP firewall”, no turn in the economy means no change in support of Trump because of it.
  12.  

  13. Right: Hillary Clinton will NOT run again for president of the United States. – Despite a late season comment (“Never say never”), Clinton has been pretty clear she has no intention of a replay of 2016 (for which I am grateful & relieved.)
  14.  

  15. Right: Someone most people aren’t currently talking about will become an early front-runner in the Democratic race. – Several candidates made the cut to support this prediction. Early on there was significant interest in former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, but we can add to that list the surprise support for Mayor Pete Buttigeig and businessman Andrew Yang. I hadn’t heard of either of them when I made my predictions last year.
  16.  

  17. Mixed: Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke topping the list of every candidates’ shortlist of potential VP picks. – Beto was indeed one of the “little-known early front-runners” I predicted above, but it was WAAAAAY too early to predict whether or not he will top anyone’s list of potential VP picks (and following his final campaign promise to “yes, we’re going to take your guns”, I think now unlikely as such comments are toxic for any campaign.) If I were making predictions for 2020, I’d keep my eye on former candidate Kamala Harris, whose campaign never took off like expected but is a strong debater, as almost certain to be the Democratic VP nominee no matter who the candidate is.
  18.  

  19. Right: General Stanley McChrystal, a potential dark-horse candidate and Trump critic, will not run. – In 2004, there was a lot of interest in candidates with military experience to take on “Draft dodger” President Bush as it became clear he lied us into a war that had already cost billions of dollars and a thousand (U.S. troop) lives, but after 18 years, the war in Afghanistan has become “background noise” for most voters who don’t even realize we are still at war… a war we’ve been fighting for so long now that “kids” not even born yet on 9/11, are now serving in the war that was in response to that attack.
  20.  

  21. Right: Paul Manafort will not flip and start dishing dirt on Trump. – Manafort ended up going to prison (to serve a disturbingly light 7.5 year sentence IMHO) rather than turn on Trump.
  22.  

  23. Right: we will see the first movement towards Impeachment Hearings by September. – Republicans “accused” Democrats of “wanting to impeach Trump even before the Ukraine phone call”. But that’s because Trump has been guilty of impeachable offenses since the moment he took his hand off the Bible in January, 2017. And the first action towards possibly impeaching Trump took place in September as Congress returned from August recess and the “Mueller Report” came to a close.
  24.  

  25. Right: No border wall. – To be fair, this prediction was like shooting fish in a barrel. Of course Trump’s idiotic border wall is not getting built (though they actually DID add three whole miles of new wall… NOT paid for by Mexico.) But Trump’s supporters still believe the Wall is being built and Mexico is paying for it (no one ever claimed Trump supporters were smart or well informed. If they were, they wouldn’t be Trump supporters, now would they?)
  26.  

  27. Wrong: the DOW is likely to close lower than where it began by the end of 2019. – Another prediction tied to #2 above. The DOW will actually close well up for the year (after closing down for 2018 when I made the prediction… a trend I expected to continue but didn’t.)
  28.  

  29. Right: we’ll see less & less of Melania in 2019. – After calling herself “the most bullied person on [sic] the world” (seriously) the October before, it was inevitable that she would eschew the public eye, making fewer & fewer public appearances as First Lady. She hates the job and hates her husband.
  30.  

  31. Right: More people connected to the 2016 Trump campaign will be indicted in 2019. – 2019 began with an early morning raid on the home of one of Manafort’s business partners, long time Trump friend and Nixon Superfan Roger Stone, who was later indicted, tried, and recently convicted & sent to prison. Also indicted and arrested at the airport trying to flee the country, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, two wealthy Ukrainian nightclub/resort owners who were paid $1 Million dollars (pinky to lip-corner) by the Russian government to hire Trump’s lawyer/friend Rudy Giuliani as part of a scheme to funnel a half million dollars into Rudy’s pocket (and Trump’s reelection campaign) in exchange for clearing the way for a Russian takeover of Ukraine’s largest Natural Gas company “GazProm”.
  32.  

  33. Right: expect the first attacks on The Kurds in Northern Iraq by Turkey and/or Iran. – My crystal ball was working overtime on this one. Trump precipitously pulled U.S. forces out of Northern Iraq and Syria (on the reassurances of Putin himself), abandoning our longtime allies The Kurds, who were almost immediately massacred by Turkish forces as Russian, Iranian and Syrian troops moved into abandoned U.S. military bases that U.S. & Allied forces fought & died to secure. Republicans hardly said “boo” over this astonishingly-horrendous and questionable withdrawal of forces without first consulting his generals or our allies, in a clear Pre-Election ploy. Of all the “If Obama had done it” hypocrisy since Trump was elected, this one took the prize.
  34. Russian & Syrian flags over US base
    Russian & Syrian flags now fly over abandoned U.S. bases in Syria

  35. Wrong: We will finally see Trump’s tax returns. – I admit I’m a bit surprised by this one, but I think in all the Impeachment hullabaloo, Trump’s taxes have sorta fallen off the radar. The State of New York DID file to obtain his tax returns for a state lawsuit against his fraudulent charity (which was shutdown and ordered to pay a $2million dollar fine) and his real estate business, but Trump’s lawyer(s) promptly took the SDNY to court to keep them from seeing his taxes (the guy who claimed to have “nothing to hide” and promised during the campaign he would release his taxes only to eventually say, “No one cares anymore” after he won, has been fighting tooth & nail to keep his tax returns secret, and his supporters all find this perfectly understandable, acceptable and not at all suspicious. The way Trump “projects”, I’m guessing he hasn’t paid a dime in taxes because he was actually born in Kenya and is not a U.S. citizen.

12 out of 18 for 66.6%. How appropriate as we move into Trump’s (hopefully) final year in office, staying right in line with my 60% 12-year average and 65%+ average during Trump’s three years. Damn I’m good.
 

I will continue with occasional Op/Ed’s as needed throughout the year. I hope you have found these Op/Ed’s informative and even helpful. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for further updates & announcements.

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December 31, 2019 · Admin Mugsy · No Comments - Add
Posted in: General, Politics, Predictions, Rants

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