Mugsy’s Predictions for 2008. (I’ll try to do better this time.)
December 29, 2007
Last year was my first attempt at making political predictions for the coming year. I’m not sure what the typical batting average is, but my “2 out of 10: 20%” success rate is arguably above average:
- God told Pat Robertson that the United States would be hit by another terrorist attack in 2007. This would be the same God that told Robertson to endorse the cross-dressing, thrice married, adulterer Rudy Giuliani for President.
- The BBC made six predictions for 2007. Of those six, they got two right (33%)… predicting 2007 would be “the warmest year on record” and that “Gordon Brown would succeed Tony Blair”. You didn’t need a crystal ball to see those coming.
- Actual psychics faired no better, scoring just two (technically 1-1/2) correct predictions out of 13. The two predictions they got right: More political sex scandals (only half right because they cited “both Parties”), and Hillary will become a “Top Tier Candidate”. Multiple predictions of Bush’s impending impeachment seem to stem from the recently elected Democratic majority in Congress and not any real “psychic” prognostication.
- Compared to “psychic” Jane Doherty (1 for 31), I should be inducted into the Psychics Hall of Fame.
- And I’d put *my* predictions up against Dick Cheney’s *any* day.
Both the psychics and I incorrectly predicted a Cheney resignation in 2007… both of us unaware of just how determined our Svengali-in-Chief is to hold on to power.
So, now that I feel better about my own batting average, how about twelve more predictions for 2008?
- Hillary’s huge lead in the National polls continues to mystify me. She has back-tracked on National Healthcare… her iconic issue… with a “solution” that mandates every person simply purchase health insurance the same way we mandate liability insurance for cars. Anyone that has ever tried to file a claim with their insurance company after a car accident knows that this is no solution to providing every American with guaranteed healthcare. She is the most hawkish of all the Democratic candidates, voted for the infamous “authorization to use force in Iraq” at a time when literally millions of people were protesting in the street (very good link with lots of pictures) against attacking Iraq; and is arguably in a mud-slinging contest with Barack Obama. So my first prediction for 2008 is a holdover from #6 last year: that as the Primaries loom closer and voters actually have to cast that ballot, they’re going to think twice about voting for Hillary and, if she wins Iowa and NH at all, it will be by very slim margins… no more than 2%-4%. Should she not come in first in either of the first two primaries (plus the Iowa caucus), her drop in the polls thereafter will be precipitous.
- The Democratically controlled Congress, unwilling to “make waves” in the days/weeks/months before the looming November election, will continue to roll-over and not challenge President Bush on anything relating to Iraq or Afghanistan, creating an opening for a Third-Party Presidential bid that would hurt Democrats far more than Republicans. While I do not foresee Ralph Nader running again, the possibility of NYC’s billionaire mayor “Michael Bloomberg” getting into the race grows. While Hillary’s candidacy is most likely what kept former VP Al Gore from entering the 2008 race, it is too late for him to change his mind now even if Hillary tumbles in the polls. So don’t expect a Gore comeback in ’08.
- The recent assassination of former Pakistani PM Bhutto will continue to rattle the Futures Market as turmoil in the Middle East continues to spread. The price of oil has already begun to climb again back toward the $100 a barrel mark (closing at just over $97/barrel on Friday). The market will struggle for a long time to avoid breaking that historic/catastrophic milestone, but if & when it does, the price of oil will not hesitate to surpass the $120/barrel mark sometime during the year.
- The current mortgage crisis will leave the Federal Reserve with no choice but to cut rates… after trying/failing every other trick in the book first… to rescue the growing list of failing banks and mortgage lenders. Lowering the rate will result in the Federal Government being unable to borrow enough money to cover the Bush Administrations’ 2008 fiscal budget, caped by a Democratic Congress unwilling to raise the Debt Ceiling to break the $10 TRILLION mark. A number of federal programs will be slashed and Republican Presidential candidates will herald it as an example of “unprecedented fiscal responsibility” going into the November elections.
- The Religious Right… still the deciding factor in who leads the Republican Party… finding Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Thompson sufficiently lacking in religious piety, will hold its nose and nominate the former minister Mike Huckabee as the GOP’s 2008 candidate for President.
- Easy one: Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will win the Presidency.
- The subject of “electronic voter fraud” will slip from the radar screen (more of a 2009 prediction) as a result of the Democratic win. The Democratic margin of victory will be large enough that any attempts to steal the election will be insufficient to change the outcome. Plea’s to follow up on Electronic Voting abuses and standardization will decline despite revelations of widespread abuse and evidence of election tampering.
- No longer a guarantee for the GOP, the Republican Presidential candidates will find themselves needing to actively court the military vote for the first time in 40 years, campaigning in towns heavily supported by military bases.
- By the end of 2008, the number of troops still in Iraq will be over 100,000 despite President Bush bringing home about 5,000-7,500 troops home in time for the November election.
- Not much of a prediction, but oil companies will increase gasoline output by bringing oil refineries back into full production (just as they did prior to the ’06 election) in time for the ’08 election, dropping gasoline prices back down to the $2/gallon mark. This time around, the obvious manipulation of gasoline prices will become a political issue as more and more people take notice.
- As I’ve noted in this blog previously, the current reduction in violence in Iraq is merely the result of “tightening the lid on a boiling pot” and “outside influences” that owe nothing at all to the Bush Doctrine. Should the current state of the Iraqi Government remain unchanged by July, a serious escalation in violence will result, with more Iraqi-on-Iraqi civilian bombings and rising violence. The number of U.S. troop deaths will be manipulated by restricting the number of patrols prior to the election (contributing to Iraqi civilian violence). The continued decline in troop casualties will be touted by GOP candidates as a victory for the Bush Doctrine.
- As neighboring Turkey continues military strikes against the PKK in Kurdish Northern Iraq… once the jewel of the Bush Administrations’ Iraq success story… even the Kurdish North will erupt into violence, leaving no part of Iraq safe from war & violence.
Once again, the predictions for the coming year seem more bleak than optimistic. Chalk that up to the current state of the country under the Bush Presidency. Oh well, there’s always 2009.
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December 29, 2007
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