Claims Hillary Has Better Chance of Winning Not Only False, but now moot amid GOP chaos

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For months now, many Clinton supporters have been citing Hillary’s chances of defeating Trump in the General election in November as their reason for voting for her. They just don’t believe that an admitted “Democratic Socialist” can win the election. As far as I’m aware, there has never been an official poll taken of Clinton supporters asking them why they support her over Sanders, but in searching the Internet, the Top 3 reasons always seem to be: “She has the best chance of winning“, “First woman president“, and “most experienced“. Well, all the polls (below) show Reason #1 is flat out wrong. Reason #2 applied just as well to Carly Fiorina, so that’s not really a very good (nor honest) reason, and Reason #3 is a matter for debate (that I’ve already covered in past posts.) But it’s that first reason, “a better chance of winning”… not only is it not true, but as recent chaos within the GOP has made painfully obvious, if THAT is your primary reason for picking Clinton over Sanders, that is no longer a concern. If Trump goes into the RNC Convention with a clear majority of votes yet is somehow denied the nomination, he is very likely to split off and run as an Independent. That much we knew. BUT, the GOP “Establishment” is so distraught by the idea of Donald Trump being their standard bearer that there are now threats by Republicans to leave the GOP to form a third party and pick their own candidate to run against Trump, splitting the Conservative vote. The GOP is in chaos and there are now two very likely scenarios in which the GOP vote is split in half, making “best chance of winning” the weakest reason of all for choosing Hillary over Bernie.

First, those polls I mentioned. Clinton & Sanders vs Trump:
 

Sanders beats Trump by more than Clinton:
Clinton and Sanders vs Trump
(Clinton doesn’t even break 50%.)
 


If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary looses, while Sanders crushes him:
Clinton and Sanders vs Cruz
 

Why is this the case? There are a few reasons: One, Republicans DESPISE Hillary Clinton. If she is the Democratic nominee, Republican voters will turn out en masse to defeat her. Two, despite what you may think about Bernie’s record on gun control, it makes him much more electable in the General than Clinton.

For Donald Trump to win the nomination outright, he needs to win just over 53% of the remaining (1049) GOP delegates. For Ted Cruz to win the nomination outright, he would need 77.5% of the remaining GOP delegates to win (based on 1,049 delegates remaining out of number needed for each candidate to reach the 50% threshold.) Rubio has dropped out, while Kasich’s only hope is to be awarded the nomination like a prize via “brokered convention”, which almost guarantees a third party run.

If Trump is the nominee, the GOP “Establishment” will never support him. Clinton could still defeat Trump (as the above polls show), but it’s by no means the sure thing many Clinton supporters seem to believe it to be. Ted Cruz is so despised by everyone that has ever worked with him that not even his fellow Senator from Texas has endorsed him for president. That’s pretty bad. Cruz is an apocalyptic “End Times” teabagging nut, and the majority of voters know it. If Cruz steals the nomination from Trump and “The Donald” doesn’t go “3rd Party”, a good many Trump supporters will support Sanders. “Free Trade”. It’s one of the few issues where Sanders & Trump overlap. And those who liked Trump’s portrayal of a “self-funded, can’t be bought, beholden to no one” campaign will likewise be drawn to Sanders. Rubio supporters will also never vote for Cruz or Trump. But Marco lambasted Clinton, so his supporters won’t be defecting to her either, but they could go for Sanders.

As mentioned in the opening, not only could Trump go “3rd Party” if denied the nomination, if Trump IS the GOP nominee, a number of establishment Republicans are discussing whether THEY may form a 3rd Party believing that the GOP no longer represents THEM. And who do they have in mind to run against Trump and the Democratic nominee? One floated name, former Senator Tom Coburn, who retired from the Senate to be treated for Cancer (and has emphatically said he doesn’t want the job), and everybody’s favorite tree-stump Rick “Oops” Perry, a man who was doing great in 2012 until he opened his mouth. Perry then donned glasses trying to make himself look smart (which should tell you just how bright he really is) and returned in 2015 to try again, but this time he was fooling no one and dropped out of the race when he failed to break 2%.

So even if you (falsely) believed Sanders was “unelectable”, that is no longer a valid concern as the GOP is likely to split their own vote come November. You should actually be more concerned if the GOP doesn’t split and they rally behind Ted Cruz (see above poll) or even John Kasich (see Sanders vs Kasich here.)
 


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March 21, 2016 · Admin Mugsy · No Comments - Add
Posted in: Election, myth busting, Predictions, Seems Obvious to Me