Santorum? Really? Nope, I guess not. NH primary will reveal what we’ve all known.
January 9, 2012

 
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Kicking & ScreamingTuesday will be the first “race that counts” of the 2012 Election… one in which actual delegates are awarded to each candidate. And the first to 1144, “wins”. So every primary for the next six months is a big deal. And the closer the race, the longer it will take for any delegate to clinch the nomination. So it was sort of a big deal when former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum exploded from behind (sorry, couldn’t resist) to a statistical tie with Mitt Romney (and if you’re the untrusting type, there are a number of eyebrow-raising questions about Romney’s last second come from behind victory over Santorum (hey, the jokes just write themselves folks.) But for me, the biggest surprise: “Santorum? Really???” And now, judging by the polls in New Hampshire, it looks like my skepticism wasn’t unwarranted. Romney at 42%, Paul in second at 18%, and Santorum falling back to third at 13%. (Huntsman and Gingrich at 12%, Perry at 1%.) So much for that Iowa Bounce. And suddenly, I feel vindicated for not taking him seriously.

When I started compiling “The List”, no one considered Santorum a serious candidate, including myself. And when I finally got around to posting his List, I lumped him in with other single-digit stragglers with no chance of winning. After all, this was a man whose entire political life was as a moral-crusader focused primarily on two issues: condemning “teh gays” and pushing the Pro-Life Agenda. And his failed reelection bid in 2006… losing by 17 points… was one of the worst defeats for ANY incumbent of EITHER party in decades. So the very idea he could go from “historic defeat” to “Presidential front-runner” six years later is the stuff of fantasy… Rick’s fantasy. Then suddenly, with the barkeep shouting “Last call!”, Santorum got his bounce. (Please note that Santorum… a single-issue Evangelical nut that suffered one of the worst defeats in recent memory… was STILL preferable to the Iowa GOP than former Obama Ambassador Jon Huntsman. – ADDENDUM: Did Huntsman’s Sunday morning debate performance earn him the next “Not-Mitt” ticket?)

So, naturally, I was wondering if I should of taken him more seriously? And now that he’s in the spotlight and people have started asking him questions, his List has grown by leaps & bounds to the point where I started debating giving him his own page. But fortunately, reason seems to have prevailed and it looks like New Hampshire isn’t rallying around “The Last Not-Mitt Standing”.

Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire have particularly good records when it comes to picking Republican presidents (NH has slight edge picking the GOP nominee, but that nominee typically does not go on to win in November. Only four since Reagan… and two of those, the incumbent president ran unopposed.)

Rick Santorum will learn in 48 hours what we’ve all known for the last 48 days: Santorum was just the last “Not-Mitt” left in the deck, and didn’t win Iowa because of any ground-swell of support for his political philosophy. By the end of January (and the Florida Primary), there will be no question who will be the Republican nominee (and the name of the next man to lose to Obama.)


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January 9, 2012 · Admin Mugsy · No Comments - Add
Posted in: Election, Politics, Predictions

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