Mugsy’s Electoral Predictions (2016 edition)

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Tomorrow/Tuesday is Election Day, and I predicted last December before the primaries even began that it would come down to Hillary vs Trump and that Hillary would win. I started telling people last month that “Hillary has a 99.9% chance of winning.” Famed election wiz Nate Silver said during ABC’s ThisWeek yesterday that “all these polls predicting 90%-95% chance of victory for Clinton are assuming that all these races where the Clinton lead is within the 3 point margin of error will all fall her way.” No. Some of us are just real good at spotting trends, and so far, I’m 2 for 2 with one to go. Are the races close in some states? Yes. But is it likely they will ALL fall the same way? Because that’s what we are talking about here. In order for Trump to win, he quite literally must run the table on nearly every single toss-up state PLUS flip one large (or two small) previously blue states. That’s a long shot even my Uncle Louie wouldn’t bet on.

There are currently twelve states where the polls are still considered “too close to call”: Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Arizona (11) and Iowa (6). (RCP includes Maine as a toss-up. Fox reports NM & ME as solidly blue, but includes VA as a toss-up.) Maine & Virginia both went Blue in 2012, and Hillary currently leads in Maine by 5.5 points. Virginia (Kaine’s home state) currently shows her up by over 4-points and having never trailed Trump since polling began a full year ago. So the number is not 14. Not 13. It’s 12… or is it?
 

Fox: 13 toss-up states.
Fox: 13 toss-up states

 

Real Clear Politics says 13+1 states are “too close to call”:
RCP's 14 toss-up states

 

Here is my own analysis of the remaining toss up states and how I predict this election to pan out:

First, let’s weed out the “sure things”. Most polls seem to agree Trump has a lock on 164 Electoral votes. Hillary’s lock is “over 200”, but that number is a range. One of them needs 270 to win. Those “toss up” states that really aren’t “toss ups” at all. People who say that are in a perpetual game of C.Y.A., unwilling to offend either side or are worried about looking partisan (and yes, I said “either” side because there are only two parties left in this race. If you are still entertaining fantasies of Johnson or Stein pulling out a surprise victory, check yourself in at the nearest mental facility. I’m serious. You’re delusional.)

Arizona: It’s close. Very close. But it’s going to land Red. Trump has led there almost consistently since August. The only time in the last 80+ years they went Blue was in Bill Clinton’s RE-election for a second term, and Hillary is not Bill. Plus Trump’s support spiked recently when the (now retracted) claim the Justice Dept was reopening the investigation into Hillary’s emails, “confirming” what most Conservatives in the Deep Red state already believed about her. And even if Comey himself were arrested & charged with trying to influence the election based on false claims, it would neither be enough to shake the distrust Republicans there already have of her, nor can it take back all those EARLY VOTES already cast during that period when Trump’s poll numbers spiked.

So color AZ red, taking Trump to 175.

New Mexico: It’s close, but Trump has NEVER led there. Color NM Blue. Plus 5 for Hillary for “over 205”.

Colorado: Tied once (briefly) but Trump has never led there. Color CO Blue. Plus 9 for Hillary for “over 214”.

Iowa: Trump took the lead there back in September and has led ever since. This would be a solid flip for Trump (and he needs two.) Color IA Red. Taking Trump to 181.

Michigan: Close, but this shouldn’t even be in question. Hillary has never trailed there and still leads by 5. Color MI Blue, giving Hillary another 16 for “over 221”.

Georgia: Other than a mild flirtation with Clinton last August, while close, has been consistently Red… not just for Trump but last went Blue in 1992 (unintentional rhyme.) Color GA red, taking The Donald to 197.

Florida: The quintessential “swing” state. Every four years, the “Sunshine State” drives us mad as we all try to guess which way a state that is literally shaped like a flaccid wind-sock will fall. There’s a reason people call Florida, “God’s waiting room” with all the elderly (mostly white) retirees filling that state, a key Republican demographic. Typically, the large anti-Castro Cuban population tends to vote Conservative, but with each passing year, that population grows ever smaller. Meanwhile, younger Cuban Americans are very supportive of President Obama’s decision to reestablish relations with Cuba such that people can now visit the country and see long-lost relatives, and lifting an embargo that clearly wasn’t working (serving only to keep the poor citizenry impoverished.) Hispanics make up over 23% of the state’s population, and Donald Trump is on the proverbial “Shit List” of most of them. Another 17% is African-American… another large anti-Trump demographic. So that’s 40% of the state’s population where Trump is as popular as a leper at a hot-tub party. 56% of the state’s population is white… not solidly Conservative, but enough to negate the anti-Trump minority vote.

So Florida comes down to a small percentage of white voters and groups listed as “other” that tend to be evenly split ideologically. Trump only outpolled Clinton briefly last September. Other than that, she has led fairly consistently and continues to do so today. So this state falls in the Blue column taking Hillary to “over 250”.

Nevada: Hillary has led there almost consistently except for the month of September when Trump led by two. A last second spike has Trump up over Hillary again, but only by 2%… not enough to make up for her huge lead during Early Voting there. So I think we can color this one Blue for Hillary, taking her to “over 259”.

And as I said earlier, Maine is not truly in question. Plus 3 for Hillary for “over 262”.

So that leaves just FOUR states that could easily go either way.

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. The race may be painfully close there, but Trump has NEVER led the state and hasn’t been close to even tying Clinton since June. The reason PA is close is because the two largest cities… Pittsburgh on one end of the state and Philadelphia on the other… are deep blue, with Oklahoma everywhere in between. This gives Republicans false hope every election of turning the state red, but this won’t be that year. If Hillary takes PA, that’s 270+. Pennsylvania is game over for Trump if he loses there. So if you’re looking for one state to watch election night, PA is it. I knew the 2008 race was over the moment John McCain lost PA, but it took the pundits hoping against hope for hours that he would miraculously flip states he had no chance of winning all night long. His chances of winning were over very early that night but no one dared admit it.

If PA goes red, that takes Trump to 217.

New Hampshire: Not sure what’s going on here. Solidly blue up until last Wednesday. The biggest question is how many votes did Hillary bank during Early Voting there and who turns out on Election Day? If it comes down to “Ground Game”. Trump has none. The Clinton campaign is a well oiled machine with sophisticated GOTV efforts. The race there is close enough that I expect a Clinton comeback to take those 4 Electoral Votes, taking her to “over 266” (not including PA.)

If Hillary loses NH, Trump goes to 221.

Ohio: The Buckeye State has been flip-flopping like a fish on dry dock since mid-September. Ohio is over 75% white. 37% are college educated whites whom tend to vote Blue. 33% are non-college whites that tend to vote Red (draw your own conclusions from that). Ohio went Blue in 2008 & 2012, and while Kerry “lost” Ohio is 2004, it took a LOT of GOP election shenanigans (fewer voting machines & long lines in the rain in poor Blue districts, and plenty of voting machines & shorter lines [if any] in wealthier red districts) for Kerry to end up “losing” Ohio by (IIRC) only around 12,000 votes. So Ohio has tended to fall Blue the past 20 years. Their 18 Electoral Votes would take Hillary to “over 280” and the presidency.

But if Trump takes Ohio too, that’s 239.

North Carolina: All over the place for the past two months. Hillary spiked and Trump plunged when Trump was caught on tape joking about committing sexual assault and flailing wildly at his accusers, but the candidates switched places quickly when Comey revealed the FBI might be reopening the investigation into Hillary’s emails. The race there is that close. Only question is: How many Early Votes was Hillary able to bank before the polls switched back? If Hillary takes NC, that’s 277 and the presidency

If Trump takes NC too, he gets to 255.

If any ONE of those four states falls for Hillary (sans New Hampshire), the election is over (and nearly over with NH.)

If ALL FOUR of these truly “Swing” states fall Trump’s way… a longshot at best… plus me being right on all the close states he’s likely to win (3), he’s STILL 15 EV’s short. So what state or states did I give Hillary that Trump must steal away? (keep in mind, we only need to flip 7.5 Electoral Votes, not all 15.)

Colorado, Michigan and Florida by themselves would be enough to put Trump over the top if they defy trends and end up going Red.

Stealing away any combination of NM, NV, IA, and NH would also give Trump the win (if he sweeps those four “too close to call” states plus takes the three I said he’s likely to win.)

Easy prediction: Johnson, Stein & McMullin won’t win a single state. Of the three, McMullin has the best shot of stealing away a state (Utah), but Trump leads by ten there, so that’s not going to happen. Johnson & Stein can only hope to break the “5% threshold” for their Parties. Johnson might get that far. Stein won’t.

People who want Trump to be president “because of his record as a successful businessman” need look no further than how badly he has run his presidential campaign to know he would have been a total failure as a president (and yes, I’m already talking in the past tense. That’s how sure I am of his impending loss.) His biggest test was running his campaign. Huge failure. No ground game. Few offices. Few (No?) surrogates outside his own family hosting a rally without Pence or Trump himself in attendance (while Hillary has Bernie, Warren and both Obama’s hosting rallies without her in addition to her daughter and husband.)

To semi-quote Right-Wing Congressman Peter King in 2004: “It’s all over but the counting” (although he added sinisterly: “And we’ll take care of the counting.”)

There will be no unity on Wednesday (Hell, I doubt Trump will even make the obligatory call to congratulate Hillary Tuesday night, opting instead to claim the race was somehow stolen and issue a call to challenge the results for weeks that will go largely ignored.) Fighting will begin in earnest on Wednesday and the bickering will resume. If you were eager for this race to be over and the fighting to cease with the election results, you’re in for four very long, painful years.

Will either candidate break 50%? I have my doubts. Remember what I said last week: A few years ago, Newt Gingrich admitted that much of the animosity towards Bill Clinton was because he won the presidency with less than 50% of the vote, bringing into question (in their minds) his legitimacy as president (of course, if Poppy Bush had won with the same percentage and by the same margin, it would have been heralded as a great victory and even a mandate.) So if Hillary also wins with less than 50%… look out.

It’ll be the “Three I’s” for the next four years: Investigation, Indictment, Impeachment no matter WHO wins. If you were anxious for this all to be over by Tuesday night, think again.

My final prediction: 319 Hilary, 219 Trump. And watch Pennsylvania. If it falls for Hillary early, Trump’s only path to victory is to win every other swing state in the East including Florida, plus both New Mexico and Nevada, or Colorado. Nine or 10 of the remaining 12 swing states? As my Uncle Louie would say: Fughedabowdit.
 


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November 7, 2016 · Admin Mugsy · No Comments - Add
Posted in: Election, Predictions, Seems Obvious to Me, voting